Jack's Free Pick Monday: Texas Rangers -128

The Oakland A's just had their 6-game winning streak snapped yesterday in a 12-3 loss to the Miami Marlins.  I like fading teams after having an extended winning streak snapped, especially bad teams.  There tends to be a hangover effect in that first game back off the loss.

The Rangers should be bigger favorites over the A's today.  Andrew Heaney has been unfortunate to have a 5.10 ERA considering he has a 1.10 WHIP in six starts this season.  Heaney went 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts against the A's last season, allowing just 3 earned runs and 13 base runners in 12 innings with 13 K's.  The Rangers won both in blowouts 18-3 and 11-3.

I'll gladly fade Alex Wood.  The left-hander is 1-2 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in seven starts this season, allowing 22 earned runs and 62 base runners in 31 1/3 innings.  Wood is 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA and 2.10 WHIP in four home starts as well.  He allowed 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 4 innings to the Rangers back on April 9th.

Heaney's teams are 16-3 (+12 Units) in his 19 career starts as a road favorite of -125 to -175.  Oakland is 10-33 (-18.2 Units) in its last 43 games as a home underdog of +125 to +175.  The A's are 4-24 (-16.6 Units) in their last 28 games after a game where their bullpen threw 6 or more innings.  Bet the Rangers Monday.

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20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Mariners -109

The Minnesota Twins just had their 12-game winning streak snapped with a 9-2 loss to Boston on Sunday.  I love fading teams after having an extended winning streak snapped because there tends to be a hangover effect in the next game.  They just aren't motivated any more to keep the winning streak going.

The Seattle Mariners are 13-5 in their last 18 games overall with some elite starting pitching.  Luis Castillo has been the catalyst, going 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.65 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing just 2 earned runs and 13 base runners in 20 innings with 22 K's.  Castillo is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts against the Twins, allowing 6 earned runs in 19 innings with 27 K's.

Simeon Woods-Richardson is no more than a fill-in starter for the Twins.  He is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in three starts this season while averaging less than 5 innings per start.  He has gotten to face the White Sox (twice) and Tigers, two of the worst lineups in baseball.  This is a big step up in class for the youngster tonight.  Bet the Mariners Monday.

15* AL Monday Total DOMINATOR on White Sox/Rays OVER 7.5

The Tampa Bay Rays came to life at the plate over the weekend scoring a total of 20 runs in their 3-game sweep of the Mets.  The Chicago White Sox have come to life at the plate over the last two weeks, scoring 5 runs or more in six of their last nine games overall.  Both offenses should stay hot against these two terrible starting pitchers.

Mike Clevinger is making his first start of the season for the White Sox.  I expect him to be on a pitch count and for the Rays to get after him and this rough Chicago bullpen.  Tyler Alexander is 0-1 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in three starts for the Rays this season.  The White Sox should tee off on him and this disappointing Tampa Bay bullpen that has a 5.06 ERA on the season.

The Rays are 26-9 OVER in their last 35 games after a game where their bullpen threw 6 or more innings in their previous game.  The OVER is 10-5 in White Sox last 15 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 10 of those 15 games.  The OVER is 8-5 in Rays last 13 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in 9 of those 13 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Tigers/Guardians AL Central ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 7.5

Two below-average offenses square off today at pitcher-friendly Progressive Field in Cleveland against two above-average starting pitchers and bullpens.  I will back the UNDER 7.5 runs as a result.

Detroit and its opponents have combined for 8 or fewer runs in six of its last seven games overall, including 5 or fewer in four of those.  The Tigers are hitting .224 and scoring 3.9 runs per game this season.  The Guardians and their opponents have combined for 8 or fewer runs in eight of their last 10 games overall.  They just lost leadoff hitter Steven Kwan to a hamstring injury over the weekend.

Jack Flaherty is 0-1 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in six starts for the Tigers this season with a whopping 50 K's in 36 innings.  Triston McKenzie is 1-0 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in his last three starts with 19 K's in 16 innings.

Flaherty has allowed 2 earned runs in 12 innings in his last two starts against Cleveland.  The UNDER is 3-0 in Flaherty's three career starts against the Guardians.  McKenzie is 3-2 with a 1.05 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in seven career starts against Detroit.  The UNDER is 5-1-1 in those seven starts.

The UNDER is 14-4-1 in the last 19 meetings.  The Guardians and Tigers have combined for 8 or fewer runs in 16 of those 19 meetings, including 7 runs or fewer in 14 of those 19.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Pacers/Knicks TNT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 216.5

There's a ton of value on the OVER in Game 1 today when you compare this total to the three totals from the regular season.  The Pacers and Knicks had totals of 234.5, 235.5 and 248.5 in their three regular season meetings.  This total has been set at 216.5 for Game 1 of this series.

The OVER is 4-2 in the last six meetings with 232 or more combined points in five of those six meetings.  The one game that didn't get to 232 or more the Knicks shot 39.8% from the floor and 21.1% from 3.  That's what it is going to take to keep this one under 216.5 combined points.

The Knicks have been playing playoff basketball for a long time now as they were fighting hard for the No. 2 seed in the East.  That's important because the OVER is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games overall.  In fact, the OVER is 15-2-1 in their last 18 games overall dating back further.  They have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team.

The Pacers just basically played the Bucks without Giannis for the entire series and without Lillard for most of it.  They went 4-1 OVER in their final five games in that series with 218 or more combined points in four of the five.  The Pacers are 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall dating back further.  They are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in the NBA in pace with an elite offense and suspect defense.  This is a very low total for a game involving Indiana.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.